An individual has been described by a neighbor as follows: “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure […], and a passion for detail.” Is Steve more likely to be…
(Reading time: 2 Min read)
The Base Rate Fallacy is a formal fallacy. It occurs when too little weight is placed on the probability base rate of an event. People are succumbing to the base rate fallacy when erroneously judging the likelihood of an event without taking into account all the relevant data. The underlying mechanism is an overt focus on new information without acknowledging how this impacts the original assumptions. Old information is still evaluated and taken into account, however the newer pieces of information are given too much weight.
(Reading time: 3 min read)
In order to call yourself a rational person, Bayesian Rationality is a must know. But what is Bayesianism? And how can it prove itself helpful to Judges, Lawyers, State’s Attorneys and even to Juries?
Understanding the plain math behind rational decision making, you will discover yourself to start thinking in numbers before starting to act.